Prospect Spotlight 🔦
Drake Baldwin – Age: 23 – B/T: L/R, 6'0"/210 – Braves (Triple-A)
Born: 3/28/2001 in Madison, WI
Draft: 2022, Atlanta Braves, Round: 3, Overall Pick: 96
College: Missouri State
Despite being a mid major school, Missouri State is one of the more successful Missouri Valley Conference programs over the past decade. Ryan Howard is the most notable alumni, but they are a school that gets a few draft picks every year and a few are able to carve out big league roles. Drake Baldwin is looking like the next Missouri State alumni to become a big leaguer, and not in a small role. Drafted in the 3rd round in 2022, Baldwin has been a consistent performer the past two seasons, and is looking like a potential everyday catcher in the future. Let’s look at what makes him interesting as a prospect.
When he steps off the bus, Baldwin isn’t necessarily someone who pops out; he stands at just 6’0” 215, but is physical enough to put up with the rigors of catching full time. He’s fairly bottom half heavy, and there isn’t much physical projection left here in general. It’s a typical catcher’s body, one that should handle the rigors of the position, but he still shows a fair amount of athleticism behind the plate and in the box, and should have a typical aging curve.
In the box, Baldwin utilizes an open stance from the left side, that’s changed a bit over the past two years. Earlier in his career, he was more upright with his hands up high, now he’s a bit more crouched, with a pronounced leg kick. From a visual perspective, his swing is somewhat oppo oriented, and while that doesn’t always line up it does in this case, as his pulled fly ball rate is just 5.2% this year in Triple-A, which is in the bottom quartile of Triple-A hitters. It’s not a complete turnoff, especially because he shows really impressive bat to ball skills and a fluid bat path that should cover all areas of the plate. This is a swing that will enable him to make contact against all pitches and have an all-fields approach, though if he starts to struggle at the big league level, his big leg kick is likely the first thing to go.
Looking at the surface level stats, Baldwin came out of the gate strong in his first season of professional baseball. In 2023, across three levels (A+, AA, AAA), he slashed .270/.385/.460 with 16 home runs, albeit most of this coming at High-A. There wasn’t much in the way of blemishes, he struck out 20% of the time while walking 15% of the time in High A, with a 1.13 GB/FB ratio and a 135 wRC+ overall, and this roughly held up in his short stints in both Double-A and Triple-A. This performance provided a strong foundation to start from, and in 2024 he was assigned to Double-A to start the year. This time however, he came out of the gate slowly and didn’t really come out of it. In 52 games, he hit just .244/.313/.337, with his walk rate falling down to 9% and a 96 wRC+, but this didn’t discourage the Braves from promoting him to Triple-A midseason.
You can see from the changepoint chart here for his rolling 20 game wRC that his overall performance in Double-A improved near the latter point of May, which probably gave the Braves confidence in promoting him and that has carried over to Triple-A. He’s striking out as much as he walks (~16%), his slugging percentage is back up to .480 and he has a 133 wRC+ overall. The blemish here is the groundball rate, it’s at 51% right now and he has a history of hitting the ball on the ground. He was at a 44% groundball rate last year in High-A, which was his largest sample, but he was over 50% at Double-A and Triple-A and so this is something to follow.
Since he’s in Triple-A, we have access to more granular batted ball data, and it’s hard to find a blemish. Aside from the ground ball rate and low pulled fly ball rate, his batted ball data is impressive. His 90th percentile exit velocity is 106.7 MPH, with a max EV of 112 MPH, which puts him in the top quartile of Triple-A hitters. His pitch selection and bat to ball stats have been excellent, with a chase rate of 26% and a swinging strike rate of 9%. His SEAGER (found here) is 15.3, again in the top quartile, indicating that he is swinging at hittable pitches and making strong decisions factoring in the location of the pitch. He needs to start lifting the ball more, but he’s doing a lot well and easily clearing the bar for a catcher.
From a defensive perspective, Baldwin has never been a slam dunk plus catcher, but he has improved behind the plate over the course of his minor league career. I don’t really see him carving out a role elsewhere on the diamond, so it’s critical that he sticks behind the plate. There isn’t really a component of his defense that looks plus, he has average arm strength, blocks reasonably well and frames reasonably well, but nothing stands out. Directionally, he’s going the right direction, and given the strides he’s made so far, there’s no reason for him not to be a full time catcher.
In summary, Drake Baldwin is someone who I think will put up league average hitting results, while also being a league average defender behind the plate. That might not sound too exciting, but finding a catcher that can hit is hard, and I think Baldwin is going to hit. There are concerns about his swing efficacy and if he can pull and lift the ball, but the approach and the power he has shown to this point outweigh those concerns for me. He’s not the fanciest player, but he’ll get the job done and have a productive big league career.