A Closer Look at Swing Decisions (SwRV)

Which hitters have made the best and worst swing decisions this season according to Drew's SwRV metric?

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In my first post for Down on the Farm, I introduced a new hitting metric to evaluate hitter swing decisions called SwRV, or Swing decision Run Value. For a complete explanation of the metric, check out the original article. Essentially, SwRV uses event probabilities generated by pitch quality models that take into account pitch characteristics and game state variables, like count and batter/pitcher handedness, to estimate the value of a swing and a take for each pitch. The two values are then compared to each other based on which decision the hitter made, debiting/crediting them for the value they gained or lost based on their decision. That post was back in February, before the current season. In today’s post, let’s take a look at some SwRV data for the 2023 season. Below is the distribution of SwRV (in the form of SwRV+, with 100 scaled to average).

SwRV+ is pretty normally distributed, with the best and worst marks in the league both about 20 points from average. Now, let’s check out a leaderboard of the top 10 hitter this season in SwRV+, minimum 1,000 pitches seen: