A Look Into the Recent Struggles of Elly De La Cruz

Elly De La Cruz’s arrival in the major leagues was one of the most exciting moments of the 2023 season. The 6’ 5”, 200 pound shortstop and consensus top Reds’ prospect was also seen by many as the top prospect in the game. Despite a lagging hit tool, De La Cruz has tantalizing power and athleticism. He made his presence known immediately, walking twice and smoking a 112 MPH double in his first game. The following day, De La Cruz further showed off his power with a 458 foot, 114.8 MPH homer off Noah Syndergaard. De La Cruz has also showed off in the field, setting and breaking his own record for the fastest tracked infield assists in StatCast history. However, despite his obvious talent, De La Cruz hasn’t quite lived up to expectations thus far, managing a 96 wRC+ and 1.0 WAR in 55 games this season. The biggest knock on De La Cruz as a prospect, his hit tool/approach, have remained a struggle in the big leagues and has led to poor walk and strikeout rates, 6.6% and 34.2%, respectively. Plate discipline has been a far bigger issue, though, than actual contact ability. De La Cruz is moderately aggressive and swings 2.5% more than expected, which is in the 70th percentile.

Per my contact probability model(s), De La Cruz has made contact almost exactly as much as expected given the pitches he has swung at. However, based on the pitches he has swung at, he has an xContact% of 69.2%, which ranks in just the 6th percentile.