American (League) Made: Which AL Farm Systems Carry the Most Momentum into 2025?
Breaking down which AL organizations have improved the projected value of their hitting prospects most over the past 12 months
Spring Training games start today, and that means it’s time for the annual tradition of irrational exuberance about prospects who hit .400 over five at-bats and panic about can’t miss guys who (gasp) have a mediocre stretch of 25 plate appearances.
We’re not complaining. It’s fun to be invested in Spring Training and extrapolate out wildly from a few Grapefruit and Cactus League games. But in reality, good evaluations are generally borne from tracking player development over more meaningful periods and continuously monitoring how players and farm systems are actually developing.
So, in part one of this two-part series, we’re highlighting which American League organizations we really should be the most excited about going into the new year. Stay tuned for the National League breakdown this weekend! (Spoiler: our most improved team by a mile is in the NL Central).
Methodology
We use our Oyster projections to compare the projected future WARs (per 600 PA) of the top 25 hitters in each farm system this year to that same value last year. Changes can come in the form of additional projected MLB WAR added by a new draft pick or international amateur signing, players acquired via trade, and strong seasons by players already in the organization that caused our model to increase their projected future value. Conversely, changes can also come from decreases in projected future WAR caused by poor seasons, and by players being traded away. As with all Oyster stuff, it’s hitters only.
Our rankings of system strength and improvement are shown in their entirety in the table below. You can also view this table, our projections for each player, and our team by team prospect rankings on the Oyster Analytics shiny app.
Now, let’s go through division by division in the AL to take a closer look at what kind of direction organizations are heading as the 2025 season draws near.
AL East
Top Three Prospects:
Marcelo Mayer, BOS
Franklin Arias, BOS
Roman Anthony, BOS
Top Three Risers:
Mikey Romero, BOS
Aidan Smith, TBA
Arjun Nimmala, TOR
Top Three Newcomers:
Brendan Jones, NYY
Jordan Sanchez, BAL
Justin Gonzales, BOS
We’re Excited About: The Sox’ Stash and the Rays’ Reload
The Red Sox are the clear top system in the division, and indeed possess the highest overall rank in the league. We’re not quite as completely nuts about Kristian Campbell as many others, but we’re still in awe of the stock of hitters in this organization. Franklin Arias and Mikey Romero fly under the radar, and Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer project to make imminent impacts.
Top 25 Prospects Future Projected WAR per 600 PA, by Team
The Sox saw good internal development, with Johanfran Garcia, Campbell and Romero taking major strides, but were hampered in these rankings by trading away Matthew Lugo, Kyle Teel, Chase Meidroth, and Braden Montgomery. Their newcomers were less impressive, but Justin Gonzalez did absolutely tear it up in the DSL as a 17-year-old, doing his best impression of the perfect Pure Hitter.
The Rays are the leaders of the division in terms of improvement, in large part through trade acquisitions.
Top 25 Prospects Future Projected WAR per 600 PA Added, by Team
We’ve written already about Aidan Smith, who we’re very high on. Matthew Etzel, another newcomer to the organization, is an intriguing piece who’s been an above-average overall hitter everywhere and every level he’s played at. Carson Williams had a better offensive year in Double-A than he did the prior year in High-A, suggesting he’s in the process of answering some of the questions about his hitting.
In Other News:
The Blue Jays were the second-strongest improvers in the division. Their progression was spearheaded by Arjun Nimmala, who has been polarizing. First the bad news: he is still striking out at a very high clip for the lower minors (31.3%) and scouts (and ourselves, based on the limited video we’ve seen) are concerned about his ability to adjust to breaking stuff.
But to be perfectly honest, we’re not remotely concerned at this point in Nimmala’s development. He’s coming off his first real pro season, in which he competed at 18 against pitchers typically in their early 20s. Some difficulty adjusting to the breaking stuff of polished college pitchers and international prospects who have spent years in affiliated ball is very much to be expected. His low batting average (.232) in 2024 against this stiff competition has led to many unfairly dinging his hit tool, which we think has the potential to play at a league-average level in MLB once he fully develops. His swing is smooth and has gotten more athletic since he was drafted, and if his strength improves as expected, he’ll hit the ball hard enough to maintain a pretty high BABIP. Our model believes as well, and jacked up his probabilities after 2024.
Bottom line: The Red Sox are in a tier of their own, and we’re even higher on some of their lesser prospects than most are. But the Rays and Jays both improved more in 2024 and now have top-10 hitter systems of their own, making this the best overall division for hitting prospects in baseball.
AL Central
Top Three Prospects:
Kevin McGonigle, DET
Walker Jenkins, MIN
Welbyn Francisca, CLE
Top Three Risers:
Welbyn Francisca, CLE
Jaison Chourio, CLE
Angel Genao, CLE
Top Three 2024 Newcomers:
Payton Eeles, MIN
Travis Bazzana, CLE
Juneiker Caceres, CLE
We’re Excited About: The Guardians’ Gang
The Guardians are the big dogs in this division, at least in terms of who they have swinging the stick down on the farm (hey, that’s the name of the website!). They added the most projected future WAR in 2024, led by strong seasons from Angel Genao and Welbyn Francisca, who we expect to see at least one of at Progressive Field up the middle by 2028. Along with Travis Bazzana and Chase DeLauter, these guys make up the strongest core of MiLB hitters west of Lansdowne Street.
Top 25 Prospects Future Projected WAR per 600 PA, by Team
In Other News:
The White Sox added Kyle Teel, Chase Meidroth, and Braden Montgomery in the Crochet deal, but otherwise had a lackluster season on the farm. The Royals haven’t seen much improvement outside the continuing strong development of Carter Jensen. The Tigers and Twins had more impressive years. We expect big things sooner rather than later from Kevin McGonigle, whose approach is insanely mature for his age and fully established himself in 2024, and the Twins got one of the best bargains of the year when they signed Peyton Eeles out of independent ball.
Top 25 Prospects Future Projected WAR per 600 PA Added, by Team
Bottom line: Most of the Guardians’ big bats are at least a couple of years away, but Cleveland possesses several top-tier yet underrated hitting prospects. Most of these players rose to the occasion in 2024, making the Guards the most improved and best system in the division.
AL West
Top Three Prospects:
Colt Emerson, SEA
Sebastian Walcott, TEX
Tai Peete, SEA
Top Three Risers:
Sebastian Walcott, TEX
Matthew Lugo, LAA
Henry Bolte, OAK
Top Three Newcomers:
Jonny Farmelo, SEA
Christian Moore, LAA
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer, OAK
We’re Excited About: Super Sebastian and Angels in the Outfield (well, mostly infield)
Sebastian Walcott is the fastest riser on this list, full stop. In 515 PA, almost all of which were in A+ with a smattering in AA, Walcott posted an .801 OPS at just 18. The K rate remains a concern, but part of what our Oyster model likes is the fact that his K’s declined in 2024, even as he graduated from the complex. Yes, he swings and misses more than you’d like, but it’s not a massive deviation from league average. He mashes balls into the gaps, and we expect more power to develop as he matures. Don’t expect him to be a demon on MLB base paths, though–he’s already getting thrown out at a 23% clip by Single-A catchers (working with pitchers who haven’t yet mastered holding runners); that doesn’t bode well for his time in the show. The bottom line, though, is that this dude hits a premier position and single-handedly elevates the Rangers system to a respectable level. He doesn’t have much help at the top, but we are cautiously optimistic about Max Acosta, who had a solid season against older competition in AA as a 21-year-old contact-hitting middle infielder. Acosta’s not likely to anchor a lineup, but we’ve got him at a 31% chance to be a regular, and he just misses our top 100 hitters.
Top 25 Prospects Future Projected WAR per 600 PA Added, by Team
Walcott did his best to earn the Rangers the title of most improved AL West, but that honor actually goes to the Angels. A huge year from Mathew Lugo after a poor 2023 helped the organization’s standing. Even more productive was the addition of Christian Moore, who immediately resumed destroying baseballs just as soon as he found his way over from Tennessee. At 18, Juan Flores had a promising debut in Single-A that outperformed expectations after a lackluster 2023 in rookie ball, but struggled again post an aggressive promotion to High-A that proved too much for him.
Head-scratching promotion decisions are a common theme in this farm system: Nelson Rada remains high (19) on our list despite the Angels’ best efforts to sabotage his development through hyper-aggressive promotions. We were impressed by his ability to at least avoid a massive K-rate and get on base at a respectable clip against pitchers who were, on average, nearly six years his senior! Our model does not have a metric to account for the Angels’ bizarre development strategy, and Rada will have to contend with this unique development path as long as he is an Angel. Why rush the process if the championship window isn’t near open?
Top 25 Prospects Future Projected WAR per 600 PA, by Team
In Other News:
Although the M’s did not improve much, they’re still tops in quality in the division. The addition of Jonny Farmelo is a major boon to the system, Colt Emerson remains in our top 10, and Tai Peete is knocking on the door. Harry Ford, Cole Young, Lazaro Montes, and Felnin Celesten are all in our top 100 hitters. This is far and away the best system in the division, despite a lack of major new additions or surprisingly positive development in 2024.
In Oakland Las Vegas Sacramento A’s land, Joshua Kuroda-Grauer is making some noise. He hit .324 across three levels in a shortened 2024 season, but the power is really, really not there. If that repeats with no progress in 2024, and the ground ball rate stays absurdly high, we’ll worry. For now, it’s fun to see the A’s keep churning out these bat-to-ball machines.
The Bottom Line: The Angels are the most improved system in the division, but still fall well behind the Mariners in terms of overall quality.
Wrap Up
While the Red Sox still have the best system (of hitters) in the AL, and indeed MLB, the Rays and Guardians are working hard to close the gap. The Guardians’ strong international signing performances and drafting and the Rays’ characteristic savviness in acquisitions via trade make them, in our view, clearly the two AL systems with the most momentum heading into 2025.
On the flip side, we’re most concerned for the Yankees and Royals–these teams fall in the bottom third of both our overall and positive change rankings. It’s less scary for the Yankees, who can often spend their way out of a jam, but presents a greater challenge for the Royals who must rely more on their systems for talent.