Down on the Farm - 5/16/22

Examining chase rates in the Florida State League, prospect spotlight on Alex Ramirez, and notable performances

Good morning and welcome to new subscribers!

Player of the Day

Ezequiel Duran, 2B - (AA) TEX - 4-4, 2 HR, 2 2B

After yesterday’s game Duran is now slashing .302/.343/.558 (119 wRC+) with 5 homers and 5 steals on the season. Despite a slow start in April, he’s produced a line of .340/.358/.600 (132 wRC+) since the start of May. He has a minuscule walk rate of 6%, but has also put up a reasonable strikeout rate of (18.6%). I’m guessing Duran will spend the bulk of the summer in AA, and if he continues to hit, will get a taste of AAA by the end of the season.

MLB Pipeline @MLBPipeline

Five times on base. Five runs scored. Five RBIs. On a two-homer day, No. 4 @Rangers prospect Ezequiel Duran continued his scorching hot May for @RidersBaseball: atmlb.com/3Ni49eU

Notable Performances

Hitters

• Austin Dean, OF - (AAA) SF - 3-5, 3 HR

• Trey Hair, 3B - (AA) TEX - 3-5, 3HR

• Tyler Soderstrom, C - (A+) OAK - 3-5, 2 HR

• Joey Wiemer, OF - (AA) MIL - 3-5, 2 HR

• Brenton Doyle, CF - (AA) COL - 2-2, HR, 2 BB

• Micker Adolfo, OF - (AAA) CWS - 4-4, HR, 2B

• Jhonkensy Noel, 3B - (A+) CLE - 4-5, 2 HR, 2B, K

• Alerick Soularie, OF - (A+) MIN - 2-3, HR, 3B, BB, K

• Jordan Westburg, 3B - (AA) BAL - 1-6, 2B, 5 K

Pitchers

• Bryce Jarvis, RHS - (AA) ARI - 68 P, 2 H, 10 K, 1 BB

• Brandon Knarr, LHS - (A+) MIL - 92 P, 25 BF, 3 H, 10 K, 1 BB

• Connor Seabold, RHS - (AAA) BOS - 92 P 22 BF, 1 H, 10 K, 1 BB

• Bryce Miller, RHS - (A+) SEA - 82 P, 21 BF, 3 H, 9 K, 0 BB

• Dylan King, RHS - (A+) LAA - 74 P, 18 BF, 3 H, 9 K, 1 BB

• Ben Brown, RHS - (A+) PHI - 71 P, 20 BF, 4 H, 8 K, 0 BB

• Logan Allen, LHS - (AA) CLE - 87 P, 26 BF, 10 H, 3 HR, 10 K, 0 BB

*BF = Batters Faced

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Examining Chase Rates in the Florida State League

Ball-tracking data in the FSL allows for an examination of different stats that aren’t available in other leagues — including plate discipline stats like chase rate (O-swing%). Here are chase rates aggregated for each team in the FSL. The Mets and Blue Jays affiliates are leading (highest chase rate) the league but quite a margin. You can see the list of players below who are at the top and bottom of the league to give you some idea of which players are driving the team-base stats. The Twins seem to have signed/drafted some highly disciplined hitters or perhaps are cultivating that approach in their system.

Here are the hitters in the FSL with the highest chase rates so far in 2022. There are some names on this list worth mentioning, such as Alex Ramirez (NYM) and Kahlil Waton (MIA), who are both toolsy players with highly aggressive approaches at the plate.