Down on the Farm 2024 Draft Top 30

A closer look at the top 30 players in this year's draft class

While there is a lot of effort involved, creating a draft board is always one of the most fun articles to work on every year. As I noted in a piece from a couple months from now, there were a lot of options to choose from in terms of who would be number one in the class. When I wrote the “Potential 1-1” piece a couple months ago, I felt there were 6 players with credible 1-1 cases, and honestly, not much changed from that time. I don’t think that Braden Montgomery has a case for 1-1 anymore, but the other five (Condon, Bazzana, Wetherholt, Burns, and Caglianone) still do in my opinion. I settled on Condon, but there are arguments to be made for all five.

Outside of 1-1 contention, there is a good set of prep players later in the first round, but save for Konnor Griffin, no prep player tempted me to put them in the top 5. On the flip side, while there were quite a few college pitchers I liked earlier, I’m not super fired up with the second tier of college pitching. It’s an interesting class, one without a Crews/Skenes/Langford type of talent, but there are still guys that will be exciting to cover in the pro ranks shortly.

To the list!

1) Charlie Condon, 3B, University of Georgia

Condon was not part of the 1-1 conversation in January, but the season he put up at Georgia this past year is one for the record books and makes him my number one prospect. It’s not a profile without flaws, there are some questions over his ability to hit off speed well, and the overall defensive fit, but I don’t think there is anyone in this class with as high of a ceiling as Condon. He has titanic power, not quite to the level of Jac Caglione but it is 70 grade.

While Condon is a below-average defender at the hot corner presently, there is more natural athleticism here than what his raw speed may suggest, and I think he will be able to play third for at least the first few years of his career. Someone like Kris Bryant comes to mind as a comp, and while his career has taken a turn for the worse as of late, he made multiple appearances at the All-Star Game and was Rookie of the Year and an MVP, so this is a valuable profile. Condon is higher risk than the typical number 1 pick but offers the most reward out of anyone in the class.

2) Travis Bazzana, 2B, Oregon State University

It’s hard to find flaws in Bazzana’s game. He has plus bat speed, one of the best approaches in all of college baseball, hits for at least average power, and plays a decent second base. Physically, he is smaller in stature and close to peak physical maturity, so I don’t expect much in the way of raw power gains here in the future. Bazzana has shown to be adept at pulling his fly balls, unlocking a bit more power in the process. He checks basically every box, and while there aren’t screaming loud physical tools here, it’s a really impressive present skillset that should allow him to climb the minor leagues quickly.

3) JJ Wetherholt, 2B, West Virginia University

Wetherholt was at the top of the draft lists to start the year, and while nothing he did necessarily has caused him to drop, there are more questions about his long term health (dealt with hamstring issues all spring) and defensive position than there were to start the year. Wetherholt has some of the best feel for hitting in the class, coupled with average raw power that makes him one of the best hitters in the class. One critique is that I would like to see him lift the ball a bit more — he recorded a 1.8 GB/FB ratio this past year. Defensively, Wetherholt played third base as a freshman, moved to second as a sophomore, and played shortstop this past year when he was not injured. He projects as a second baseman long term due to middling arm strength and range. Expect to see him get a run at shortstop during the early stages of his minor league career, but second, or even center field where he can utilize his plus speed more, is a more likely fit for him.

4)  Chase Burns, RHP, Wake Forest University

No pitcher in this class has the depth in repertoire as Burns. The lowest whiff rate of all of his pitches was the 36% rate he recorded with his fastball; he had a 64% whiff rate with his slider, a 58% rate with his curveball, and 38% rate with his changeup. This comes with a 36% chase rate overall, so as he faces big league competition, he will see less chases and more contact that what he sees in the ACC, but still this is an arsenal that will translate well to the big league game. His fastball average 97.8 MPH, and he regularly touches 100 MPH. He rips off a two plane slider in the 85-88 MPH range, along with a curveball in the low 80s, both of which grade out as 70’s for me. Burns used his changeup just 6% of the time, but it has a decent fading shape to it. It’s popular to add a “splinker” as we’ve seen with Jhoan Duran and Paul Skenes, and that may be possible for Burns as well, though you can bet his arsenal is pretty well optimized right now given he was at Wake Forest.

There is a fair amount of effort in the delivery, which gives off reliever vibes for some. As such, while he throws many strikes, it’s not clear he has a ton of control over where the baseball is actually going. Big league hitters lay off pitches outside of the zone more often than not, and so being able to actually throw strikes is going to be more important, even if he hasn’t necessarily needed that skill yet. At the start of the year, there were some saying that Burns is a better pitching prospect than Skenes, and while I think that is false, Burns is still a top pitching prospect out of the last few draft classes, and almost certainly slots into the Top 100 prospect lists when they start getting released at the end of the year.

5) Jac Caglianone, 1B/RF, University of Florida

Caglianone is one of the most famous players in college baseball. A two-way player at Florida — he’s been in the upper 90s with his fastball — he projects more as a bat at the professional level. Caglianone’s power is immense, regularly blasting balls above 110 MPH, and his raw power grades out as a 70. How much of it he will get to in games is harder to figure out. He has above-average bat to ball skills (a noticeable improvement from 2023 to 2024), but he had a chase rate approaching 40% and that might just undermine the whole profile all together. Still, the bat speed and power are so good that it cannot be overlooked no matter how bad his swing decisions have been. Defensively, he has the arm for a corner outfield spot, but spent most of his time at first this year for the Gators. Expect him to play right field in pro ball until he can prove that he can’t play the position. If it comes together, this ranking will look laughably low, but the poor swing decisions and defensive fit have to be factored in.

6)  Braden Montgomery, RF, Texas A&M University

Montgomery is one of the more famous college baseball players, and it was disappointing to not see him perform in the College World Series due to the broken ankle injury he suffered against Oregon in the Super Regional. It’s a tale of two tapes with Montgomery, who is a switch hitter but is far better as a lefty than as a righty. That’s important, because he’ll see more righties and thus bat lefty as a professional, but it’s worth bringing up because he may end up just being a lefty hitter as a professional. There are a lot of 55s on Montgomery’s card, save for the 80-grade arm that he shows out in right field. Montgomery is a decent runner, but is limited to the corners, and it’s hard to predict how the ankle injury will affect his athleticism and running speed long term. He shows above average power at the plate, makes above average swing decisions, and his plate discipline has gotten better over time. There is more variance than I previously thought when I evaluated Montgomery originally, and the ankle injury makes him even harder to figure out, but he is still a top 10 pick in my opinion. To slide out of the top 10, teams would have to be especially concerned about the ankle.

7) Konnor Griffin, CF, Jackson Prep HS (MS)

The top prep bat in this class, Griffin hails from Flowood, Mississippi, where he was the Gatorade National High School Player of the Year this past season. Standing at 6’4” 205 pounds, the LSU commit makes some of the hardest contact in the class. It’s easy plus power and bat speed, and he will likely have 70 raw power at his peak. Despite being on the larger side, Griffin projects as a center fielder, as he has plus speed and plus arm strength. Unsurprisingly for a player of this size and age, his swing has some length at times, though he has made adjustments over the course of the year. It’s hard to find a player with this much raw power who can also play center, and while there is a high level of risk involved, as there is with nearly every high schooler, Griffin is a really exciting player.

8) Trey Yesavage, RHP, East Carolina University

Yesavage has a strong, physical frame that looks like it could handle 200 innings if starters were still asked to do that. The 6’4” 225 pound righty from East Carolina is one of the more physical pitchers in the class and has some of the loudest stuff. Yesavage’s fastball sits in the mid-90s, with plenty of carry that will generate whiffs. He follows that up with a slider/cutter in the upper 80’s, which generated a 58% whiff rate this past season. He also mixes in a splitter that has late tumbling action and real bite to it. His release point is straight over the top, and so he might get dinged a bit by teams/models that favor a low vertical approach angle, but his approach angle is so steep that other models may view it as a positive. I think it presents a unique look and think it will help his stuff play up more. Yesavage projects as a low variance, mid rotation starter.

9) Hagen Smith, LHP, University of Arkansas

Hagen Smith had one of the worst outings of his career to start his 2024 campaign, going just one inning against James Madison, and allowing 3 runs in 42 pitches. He followed that up by striking out 17 batters in 6 innings against Oregon State in one of the most electric pitching appearances of the entire college season. Smith continued upon that success, and it has made him a top 10 draft prospect. The lefty throws from a deceptive ¾ arm slot, with a fastball up to 99 and averaging 96. His primary off speed is his slider, which sits in the mid-80’s and has hard, two-plane break that projects as plus. There is some relief risk here, Smith relies almost entirely on his fastball and slider, but his changeup flashes plus when he uses it. There are a lot of positive traits here and Smith projects as a middle of the rotation starter once that change is fully developed.

10)  Bryce Rainer, SS, Harvard-Westlake HS (CA)

Rainer is well regarded as a pitcher, but his hitting development has taken off to a point that he is widely seen as a better hitter than pitcher at this point. He is a big bodied shortstop prospect, standing at 6’3” 195, and like most big bodied shortstop prospects, there are questions over his ability to stay at the position long term as he grows into his frame. Rainer has given no indication that he will need to move off soon, and projects to provide at least average defense at the position long term. Hitting wise, Rainer has grown into some real power, and he can drive the ball to all fields. There is a bit of a bat wrap in his swing, but he shows a good feel for the zone and plus bat speed which mitigates some hit tool risk. He will be 19-years-old on draft day, which is certainly a concern for some teams. That being said, this is one of the best prep bats in the country and he should go near the top of the first round.

11)  Christian Moore, 2B, University of Tennessee