Down on the Farm - 7/12/22

Draft week continues! Today we look at historical draft results for the National League Central and trends in drafting high school players

Draft Week Continues!

Are Less High School Players Being Drafted?

Yes. MLB organizations are drafting less high school players than in the past. Last year only 12% of players were drafted out of high school, which was the lowest rate ever (as far as there is data). So why are clubs opting to pick college players over high school talent? There are a few possible explanations for this trend…

1) Due to more access to data (and advanced analysis) clubs have realized that longer developmental timelines for high school players makes them riskier bets, so they are opting to choose college players who have more data available. The exceptions are only for the top level high school talent.

2) The restructuring of the minor leagues means fewer roster spots for players. Clubs have to choose more judiciously how to use these spots and in many cases it makes more sense to spend these roster spots on players in which there is more information and who are closer to having an impact on the big league roster. Again, the exceptions are for the most talented prep players.

3) Another possible contributing factor when looking specifically at 2020-2021 is that COVID changed the landscape for high school and college players in distinct ways. There were less high school showcases, which meant scouts weren’t able to see as many high school players. This was also the case for college players in 2020, who only played a partial season, but scouts and analysts still have much more information and reports on college players than prep prospects.

This year’s draft will be interesting to monitor after it’s mostly been a normal high school and college spring for amateur players.

National League Central

Today we’ll move on to the National League Central and dive into each organization’s draft results over the past decade. Again, we’ll look at each club in the order of the current standings, meaning the Brewers are first up.