Farm System Preview: Astros
The Astros possess one of the weaker farm systems in baseball
Houston Astros
Overview
The Houston Astros’ minor league system has been a crucial part of their sustained success at the Major League level, but in recent years penalties related to the sign stealing scandal and a lack of high draft picks has sapped their system of talent. While the organization has historically focused on player development to sustain their major league pipeline, the current state of their minor league affiliates suggests a lack of elite talent. Though a few position players and pitchers show promise, Houston lacks the high-end prospects that other systems possess, which could impact their ability to replenish the big league roster in the coming years.
Astros System Summary
Organizational Performance Breakdown - 2024
Key Statistical Performance Areas (Offense)
Batting Average (AVG): .212 (Third worst in the league)
On-Base Percentage (OBP): .306 (Near the bottom of the rankings)
Slugging Percentage (SLG): .335 (Among the lowest)
OPS (On-Base Plus Slugging): .641 (Significantly below average)
ISO (Isolated Power): .123 (Limited power production)
Strikeout Rate (K%): 24.5% (One of the highest rates in the league)
Walk Rate (BB%): 10.4% (A relative strength)
Key Statistical Performance Areas (Pitching)
FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching): 4.67 (4th worst in the league)
ERA (Earned Run Average): 4.63 (Bottom third of all organizations)
K% (Strikeout Rate): 23.8% (Near league average)
BB% (Walk Rate): 12.0% (Worst in the league)
AVG (Batting Average Against): .226 (Middle of the pack)
WHIP (Walks + Hits per Inning Pitched): 1.42 (Poor control and traffic on the bases)
HR/9 (Home Runs Allowed per 9 innings): 0.90 (One of the better metrics for Houston, showing that home run suppression was not a major issue)
Position Players
2024 Performance Summary
Individual Player Summaries
Jacob Melton (OF, AA/AAA)
Age: 24
Height/Weight: 6'2" / 210 lbs
2024 Performance: In 2024, Jacob Melton posted an overall slash line of .253/.310/.426, smacking 15 home runs across Double-A and Triple-A levels. He’ll need to improve his swing decisions as he progresses through the minors — his OBP of .310 suggests there’s room for improvement in plate discipline and swing decisions. Melton is a plus baserunner, finishing the 2024 campaign with 30 steals.
Summary: Melton’s offensive game is built on a power-speed combination that could see him potentially putting up a 20/20 season in the big leagues, but he’ll need to improve his approach to get on base more consistently. Defensively, Melton's speed and instincts have been assets in the outfield. He’s an above-average defender in center field and exhibits plus defensive skills when positioned in the corners. His arm strength is rated as average, but he compensates with quick and efficient transfer, effectively limiting opponents' ability to take extra bases.
2025 Outlook: Looking ahead to the 2025 season, Melton is expected to begin the year at Triple-A Sugar Land. With continued refinement of his offensive approach, particularly in improving his swing decisions and reducing strikeout rates, he could position himself for a major league debut later this season. The Astros organization envisions Melton as a potential everyday outfielder who can provide a combination of offensive production and defensive reliability. His plus speed not only enhances his defensive range but also makes him a threat on the basepaths. To realize his offensive potential, he’ll need to make adjustments that promote more consistent contact that leverage his raw power. Additionally, enhancing his ability to recognize and react to off-speed pitches will be crucial in as he moves to facing higher-level pitching.
Cam Smith (3B, AA)
Age: 21
Height/Weight: 6'3" / 220lbs
2024 Performance: Cam Smith had an outstanding 2024 season, slashing .313/.396/.609 across 134 plate appearances in his first year of professional baseball. His .609 slugging percentage highlights his ability to hit for power, while his .396 on-base percentage suggests he also possesses a knack for getting on base. Over the course of the season, he hit seven home runs, an impressive mark considering his limited number of plate appearances.
Summary: Smith was the key prospect piece in the deal that sent Kyle Tucker to the Cubs. A first-round pick out of Florida State University, Smith has plus power but also strongbat-to-ball skills. Unlike many young power hitters who struggle with high strikeout rates, Smith has so far demonstrated a refined approach at the plate, consistently making quality contact. Smith’s swing is more geared for hard-hit doubles than homers, given his relatively flat bat path. Defensively, Smith has been serviceable at 3B. While he doesn’t possess elite speed, he moves well enough laterally and should be able to stick at the hot corner. His arm strength is above-average. Continued work on his footwork and defensive instincts will help maximize his value in the dirt.
2025 Outlook: Smith will likely begin the 2025 season in Double-A or Triple-A, depending on his performance in spring training. Given how quickly he moved through the system in 2024, a major league debut in late 2025 is a real possibility. The Astros may want to give him additional time to refine his defensive skills and face more seasoned pitchers before calling him up, but his bat could force their hand sooner rather than later. Overall, Cam Smith’s 2024 breakout campaign has set the stage for a quick rise through the Astros' system. If he builds upon his impressive debut season, he could be knocking on the door of the major leagues by the end of 2025.
Brice Matthews (SS/3B, AAA)
Age: 22
Height/Weight: 5’10, 190lbs
2024 Performance: After overcoming an early season back injury in 2024, Brice Matthews slashed .265/.384/.481 across 344 plate appearances, demonstrating an advanced ability to get on base while showcasing solid power. His .384 OBP highlights his patience at the plate and strong approach, while his .481 slugging percentage suggests he has the power to be a legitimate extra-base threat. Over the course of the season, he hit 15 home runs, an encouraging sign of his developing power potential. His strikeout rate, while manageable, is something to monitor as he moves up the ladder — across three levels he posted a poor 31.4% strikeout rate. His ability to make consistent contact and drive the ball to all fields will determine whether he can maintain his offensive production at higher levels.
Summary: Standing 5’10 and weighing 190 pounds, Matthews possesses an athletic frame built for both power and speed. Scouts have praised his quick twitch athleticism and ability to generate power from his lower half, making him a well-rounded player both offensively and defensively. Defensively, Matthews' plus speed and instincts give him a chance to stick at short long-term. Last year, he split time between shortstop and third base, showcasing solid range and quick reactions. While his arm strength is slightly above-average, continued work on his throwing accuracy and footwork will be crucial as he continues his development. With further refinement, he has the potential to be an impact defender at the major league level, whether it’s up the middle or at third.
2025 Outlook: Matthews will likely begin the 2025 season at Triple-A, with a possible mid-season promotion to the big leagues if he continues to produce. Given his advanced plate discipline and power-speed combination, he has a chance to fast-track his way to the majors. Matthews' long-term ceiling is that of a potential everyday infielder with a power over hit profile and solid defensive capabilities. If he continues his upward trajectory, the Astros could have a future starter or a valuable utility infielder with the ability to impact games with his power and speed.
Zach Dezenzo (1B, AAA/MLB)
Age: 24
Height/Weight: 6’5, 220lbs
2024 Performance: Dezenzo played across three levels in 2024, splitting time between Double-A, Triple-A, and the MLB. His minor league slash line of .299/.385/.492 across 226 plate appearances was an impressive display of offensive consistency. With a .492 slugging percentage, he showcased his ability to hit for power while maintaining a disciplined approach at the plate, as reflected in his .385 OBP. Upon his promotion to the major leagues, however, Dezenzo struggled a bit, slashing .242/.277/.371 in 65 plate appearances. His OBP dipped significantly, as he faced more refined pitching with better breaking stuff and sequencing. Defensively, Dezenzo is versatile, withe the ability to play corner infield and outfield spots. While his defense is just average, his offensive upside gives him a legitimate path to an everyday role in the future.
Summary: Zach Dezenzo was drafted by the Astros in the 12th round of the 2022 MLB Draft and he has since progressed quickly through the minors. Standing at 6-foot-5 and weighing 220 pounds, Dezenzo has an imposing frame built for power. His natural strength and above-average bat speed allow him to drive the ball to all fields, making him a key offensive contributor. Dezenzo has already reached the major leagues, making his debut in 2024 after a strong showing in the upper minors. Dezenzo’s minor league performance has been impressive, but his struggles in the majors underscore the adjustments needed for long-term success. His plate discipline in Triple-A was a strong suit, but his increased strikeout rate in the big leagues indicates he must refine his approach against elite-level breaking pitches and fastballs at the top of the zone. Scouts remain optimistic about his power potential, which projects as above-average for a corner outfielder or first baseman.
2025 Outlook: Heading into 2025, Dezenzo will likely compete for a bench role with Houston, though additional time at Triple-A to refine his contact skills and plate discipline is a possibility. His ability to hit left-handed pitching well could make him a valuable platoon option, and if he can improve against right-handers, he has the upside of a middle-of-the-order bat. The Astros may give him more at-bats in spring training to determine if he can stick in the majors full-time. His defensive flexibility, coupled with his offensive potential, makes him a strong candidate for a spot on the roster as a fourth outfielder or first baseman. Ultimately, Dezenzo’s long-term role hinges on his ability to make consistent contact at the major league level. If he can make the necessary adjustments, he could become a solid contributor in Houston’s lineup by mid-to-late 2025. If not, he still profiles as a valuable depth option with above-average power and on-base skills.
Pitchers
2024 Performance Summary
Individual Player Summaries
Colton Gordon (LHP, AAA)
Age: 26
Height/Weight: 6’4, 225lbs
2024 Performance: In 2024, Colton Gordon pitched 123.1 innings at the Triple-A level, marking his highest workload in a single season. Over those innings, he posted a 23.8% strikeout rate, a 7.5% walk rate, and a 4.31 FIP. While he misses his fair share of bats, he’s not overpowering — Gordon’s ability to generate swings and misses stems from his ability to sequence, deception, and command rather than elite velocity.
Summary: Gordon was drafted by the Astros in the 8th round of the 2021 Draft out of the University of Central Florida, where he excelled as a control-focused pitcher with plus command and an advanced understanding of sequencing. After missing part of the 2021 season due to Tommy John surgery, he gradually worked his way back to full strength. The Astros took a cautious approach with his development, limiting his innings in 2022 and 2023 before allowing him to take on a full workload in 2024. As a result, 2024 was his most complete and productive season as a professional. Gordon does not fit the mold of a high-velocity, high-strikeout pitcher, but he compensates with command, pitchability, and sequencing. He profiles as a mid-to-back-end rotation starter at the MLB level, someone who can eat innings and provide consistency without relying on overpowering stuff. Gordon’s pitch sequencing and ability to mix speeds give him a strong foundation for sustained success. However, his lack of an elite put-away pitch and occasional struggles with limiting hard contact mean that his upside may be limited.
2025 Outlook: Heading into 2025, Gordon is expected to start the season in Triple-A Sugar Land, but he’ll likely be one of the first pitchers called up if the Astros need rotation depth. His ability to throw strikes, eat innings, and generate soft contact makes him a viable option for either a spot start or bullpen help at the big-league level. Ultimately, Gordon’s strong command and durability make him a legitimate MLB-caliber arm. Whether he reaches the majors in 2025 or 2026, he has positioned himself as a reliable depth option for Houston’s pitching staff.
A.J. Blubaugh (RHP, AA, AAA)
Age: 24
Height/Weight: 6’2”, 190 lbs
2024 Performance: A.J. Blubaugh completed the 2024 season with 128.2 innings pitched, making him one of the more durable arms in the Astros' minor league system. His 24.5% strikeout rate was solid but not elite, indicating he has the ability to miss bats, though he’s not entirely dominant in that regard. His 4.47 FIP suggests that while his ERA may have been affected by defensive play and luck, his underlying metrics paint a picture of a pitcher who is still refining his approach. One of the key concerns in his profile is his 9.4% walk rate. While not overly alarming, this rate suggests that he struggles with command at times. His mix of a fastball, slider, and changeup played well at the Double-A level, but at Triple-A, he faced more disciplined hitters who forced him to be more precise with his command. Against better competition, his effectiveness fluctuated, leading to some outings where his walk rate crept higher than ideal.
Summary: Blubaugh, currently 24-years-old, spent the 2024 season splitting time between Double-A and Triple-A. Blubaugh has a lean, well-built, frame for a starter. While not an overpowering presence on the mound, his mechanics and ability to generate extension makes his stuff play-up. His fastball velocity is solid but not elite, sitting in the low-to-mid 90s. He has a plus changeup that generates consistent swing and miss. Pairing those weapons with a more consistent breaking offering will be crucial for him to continue missing bats at the next level. If he can sharpen his command and improve his first-pitch strike rate, he has the potential to emerge as a viable back-end starter or long relief option for Houston.
2025 Outlook: Blubaugh’s next step in 2025 will be to further refine his stuff in Triple-A. Given that he already spent part of 2024 there, he’ll likely start the season at that level with a chance to make his major league debut. Improving his efficiency by cutting down on walks and improving his breaking ball will be the most important factors in his development.
Miguel Ullola (RHP, AA, AAA)
Age: 22
Height/Weight: 6’1”, 205lbs
2024 Performance: Miguel Ullola split time between Double-A and Triple-A (3 IP), accumulating 130.1 innings —his highest workload as a professional. Over that span, he posted an impressive 31.1% strikeout rate, showcasing his ability to overpower hitters. However, his 14% walk rate proved to be an ongoing issue, preventing him from consistently working deep into games. His 4.04 FIP suggests that, despite some struggles with walks, his ability to miss bats kept his overall performance solid.
Summary: Ullola is a lean, athletic pitcher known for his ability to miss bats with his electric stuff. Signed by the Astros as an international free agent out of the Dominican Republic, Ullola has steadily climbed through the minor league ranks, displaying both dominance and areas for improvement. His fastball sits in the mid-to-upper 90s, generating swing and misses at a high rate, while his breaking pitches are sharp but inconsistent. He’s shown the ability to produce strikeouts, but command and control issues have remained a concern. Ullola’s 2024 season reinforced his status as a high-risk, high-reward prospect. His control struggles and inefficiency raise concerns about whether he can remain a starter long-term. If he can lower his walk rate and improve his ability to pitch deeper into games, he has the potential to be a mid-rotation starter. But if his command issues persist, a move to the bullpen could be the best path forward.
2025 Outlook: Ullola will likely begin the 2025 season at Triple-A Sugar Land, where he’ll continue refining his command. Several possible paths exist for him in 2025. Miguel Ullola’s raw talent is undeniable, but refining his command and limiting free passes will determine whether he sticks as a starter or transitions to a bullpen role. With continued development, he has the potential to be a high-impact arm for the Astros in 2025 and beyond.
Ryan Gusto (RHP, AAA)
Age: 25
Height/Weight: 6’4”, 232lbs
2024 Performance: In 2024, Ryan Gusto logged 148.1 innings pitched at Triple-A Sugar Land, marking the highest workload of his career. Over that span, he posted a 22.6% strikeout rate, a respectable number that indicates his ability to miss bats, while maintaining a 4.37 FIP. Gusto has a four-pitch arsenal, featuring a low-to-mid 90s fastball, a solid changeup, a slider, and a curveball. While none of his pitches grade out as elite, his ability to mix them effectively allows him to keep hitters off balance.
Summary: Gusto possesses the prototypical frame of a durable, innings-eating starter. Originally drafted by the Astros in the 11th round of the 2019 MLB Draft out of Florida International University, Gusto has steadily progressed through the minor league ranks, displaying a mix of strikeout potential and command concerns. Gusto’s development path has been methodical, with the Astros gradually increasing his workload each season. Gusto’s 2024 season reinforced his profile as a reliable, innings-eating pitcher. While he lacks elite velocity or overpowering stuff, his ability to mix pitches and generate soft contact makes him a viable option as a depth starter or long reliever at the major league level.
His inability to dominate hitters and generate elite swing-and-miss numbers limits his upside. If Gusto can improve his command and refine his secondary offerings, he could develop into a low-end MLB starter or a reliable long-relief option.
2025 Outlook: Although Gusto is likely to start the 2025 season in Triple-A Sugar Land, given his experience and the Astros’ potential need for depth, he could be one of the first call-ups if the big-league rotation needs reinforcements. Ultimately, Ryan Gusto’s ceiling is that of a reliable back-end starter or multi-inning reliever. While he may not have the high-upside potential of other prospects, his steady presence and ability to eat innings make him a valuable asset for the Astros' organization. If he can refine his command and miss a few more bats, he could earn his first major league call-up in 2025.
Anderson Brito (RHP, A, CPX, DSL)
Age: 20
Height/Weight: 5’10”, 155lbs
2024 Performance: Anderson Brito was nothing short of dominant in 2024, splitting time between Dominican Summer League (DSL), Complex League, and Low-A. Across these levels, he posted a stunning 38.9% strikeout rate, albeit with a 10% walk rate. His 1.51 ERA reflects how difficult it was for hitters to square him up, and while his FIP of 3.18 and xFIP of 2.83 suggest that some regression could be expected, his overall performance remained elite. His command and control showed room for improvement, but his raw stuff was overpowering for most hitters at these levels.
Summary: Signed as an international free agent out of the Dominican Republic, Brito is one of the more exciting young arms in the Astros' farm system. At only 20-years-old, Brito has already demonstrated a high ceiling with his ability to dominate opposing hitters. He features an electric fastball, a sharp breaking ball, and a developing changeup, all of which contribute to his ability to miss bats at an elite rate. The biggest factor in his future projection will be his ability to refine his command and secondary offerings. If he can cut down on free passes and develop a reliable third pitch, Brito projects to be a mid-rotation arm. Brito’s small frame provides some concern about whether he can endure a starters workload and maintain velo deep into games.
2025 Outlook: Looking ahead to 2025, Brito is expected to spend more time at Single-A and potentially make the jump to High-A if his command continues to improve. If Brito continues on his current trajectory, he could be in Double-A by 2026, setting himself up as a potential MLB contributor by 2027. While he remains a high-risk, high-reward prospect, there’s no denying that his raw ability and strikeout dominance make him one of the most exciting young arms in the Astros’ pipeline.
State of the Astros' Farm System Heading into 2025
The Astros farm system is below average heading into 2025. While a few position players and pitchers have promise, there’s a lack of elite talent.
Strengths
1. Promising Position Players
Despite the lack of elite talent, the Astros have several intriguing position player prospects who could contribute at the big league level in the near future. Jacob Melton, an outfielder who split time between Double-A and Triple-A, has emerged as one of the system’s better overall players. Another notable name is Cam Smith, a first-round pick in 2024 who has the ability to quickly ascend through the system. Smith’s .313/.396/.609 slash line across three levels last season suggests he has one of the highest offensive ceilings in the organization. If he continues his rapid development, he could be knocking on the door of the major leagues sooner than later. Additionally, Brice Matthews, a shortstop/third baseman, provides defensive versatility and power potential — if he refines his bat-to-ball skills, he could be a solid contributor in the future.
2. Some Depth in the Upper Minors
While Houston lacks top-tier talent, they’ve improved their depth in the upper minors, which provides potential role players and bullpen options for the major league club. Zach Dezenzo, who reached the majors in 2024, is a power-hitting corner outfielder who could find a more permanent role in Houston if he adjusts to big-league pitching. A.J. Blubaugh and Colton Gordon provide depth in the starting rotation or bullpen should injuries arise.
Weaknesses
1. Lack of Elite Talent
Most successful farm systems have at least one or two blue-chip prospects who project as future stars. Houston currently lacks any top-50 prospect in baseball, making it difficult to project high-impact players reaching the big leagues soon. Many of their top minor leaguers profile as solid contributors rather than cornerstone pieces, which is a concern for an organization that has relied on homegrown talent in recent years.
2. Pitching Uncertainty
The Astros’ farm system does not feature a surefire future ace or elite bullpen arm. While several pitchers have shown flashes of potential, most project as mid-to-back-end starters or relievers. A.J. Blubaugh and Colton Gordon are reliable options, but neither possesses frontline starter upside. Miguel Ullola has some of the best strikeout numbers in the system but struggles with command issues, which may limit his role at higher levels.
3. Struggles with Offensive Consistency
While the Astros have a few intriguing bats, offensive consistency has been an issue throughout the system. Players like Zach Dezenzo and Jacob Melton have shown potential, but their high strikeout rates and struggles against advanced pitching raise concerns. If these hitters cannot refine their approaches, they may be limited to platoon or bench roles rather than everyday starters.
Final Thoughts
The Astros' farm system in 2025 will likely provide a few contributors, but the lack of elite talent means the organization may need to look outside for reinforcements. The best-case scenario involves continued development from Melton, Smith, Matthews, and Dezenzo, while pitchers like Blubaugh and Gordon provide depth in the rotation or bullpen. However, unless the Astros acquire high-end talent through the draft, international signings, or trades, their farm system will remain in the bottom third of MLB rankings. Houston’s ability to develop under-the-radar talent has been a strength in the past, and they will need to rely on that again to maintain long-term success.