Goldilocks and the Nine Prospects: A Projection Comparison
Who do we think Fangraphs, Baseball America, and MLB Pipeline are "too hot" on, "too cold" on, and who do they get "just right?"
The tale of Goldilocks and the Three Bears is told to almost every American, teaching the importance of finding things that are “just right” and not too extreme one way or the other (side note from the secondary author of the article: the story also is teaching you to stay out of other people’s houses and not to steal their stuff). A brief recap for those who weren’t paying attention in school: in the story, Goldilocks enters (invades?) the home of three bears and eats their porridge that they left to cool. One bowl she finds to be too hot; the second, too cold; and the third one, just right! After more similar “finding the best” situations, the bears come back, and Goldilocks flees the house.
In this piece, we’ll be playing the part of the blissfully unaware Goldilocks, entering the houses of Fangraphs, Baseball America, and MLB Pipeline, ingesting their projections, and deeming with our executive authority if their evaluations are too hot, too cold, or just right. We will focus on players we haven’t covered as much in detail, including some recent graduates from our modeled projections.
*All stats as of 6/4/25
Fangraphs (Pre-Season Predictions)
Too hot…
Kristian Campbell (8th on “The Board”)
*Pre-promotion, was ranked 69th at start of year by Oyster
Why they like him: He had an absurd 2024, totaling a wRC+ of 178 at High-A, Double-A, and Triple-A. His stats were all around fantastic, and with an okay glove, he’s a top prospect. Fangraphs is especially wooed by his home run power development, smacking 20 in 517 PA in 2024.
Why they’re “too hot”: We like his hitting profile, and were also blown away by his incredible stat line; he may have had the best 2024 season for an under-24-year-old in all the Minors! Our model kept him out of our top 50 because of three yellow flags: an unsustainable BABIP of .395, a Triple-A ground ball rate of 58.8%, and an infield fly ball rate of 36.4%. While an adjustment period to top-level pitching is to be expected, those numbers were a bit concerning for his long-term production.
The ground ball issue has bled over into his MLB career, with a ground ball percentage of 53% thus far. He started his MLB campaign with a red-hot April and ice-cold May, and improvements to his batted ball profile are necessary to tap into his high-end exit velo numbers. While he’s a versatile fielder, he’s been a net negative with the glove, hurting his value compared to other prospects in premier positions. Make no mistake, we’re high on Campbell, just not as bullish on his star potential as others.
Too Cold…
Arjun Nimmala (70th on “The Board”)
*Ranked 44th for us at the start of the year
Why they’re “too cold”: While Fangraphs acknowledges Nimmala’s big-time power, they’re dissuaded by his high-K swing-and-miss approach. They also cast some doubt on his stickiness at SS because of mediocre mechanics and feel for the position, while acknowledging his young age gives him a shot to improve!
Why we like him: 16 homers in 361 PA as an 18-year-old in A-Ball is incredibly impressive, putting him in similar company with guys like Fernando Tatis Jr., Freddie Freeman, and Giancarlo Stanton (who hit 39!!! in 540 PA as an 18-year-old in A-Ball). Point is, the power is absolutely nuts, and even fewer players possess that level of pop at a premium position. Normally, the model is afraid of toolshed prospects, but Nimmala is a notable exception. He’s justified our preseason praise with a fantastic start to 2025, clubbing nine dingers in 216 High-A PA while more notably posting a career low 17.6% K% and a .290 average. He’s swinging slightly less than last year (42.5% compared to 45.7%) while making contact at a rate six percentage points higher than last year, and he’s cut his infield fly ball percentage by eight percentage points (16.1%). Nimmala is an example of why age/level matters so much in prospect evaluation; a 20-year-old with his 2024 numbers presents far fewer opportunities for growth than an 18-year-old Nimmala.
Just right!
Thayron Liranzo (42nd on “The Board”)
*Ranked 40th for us at the start of the year
Why they’re just right: Liranzo was traded to Detroit from LA in the Jack Flaherty trade and is one of the Minors’ biggest powerhouses. Liranzo’s MO is posting above-average homer numbers at a younger age than his competition. Smashing 24 HRs in A-Ball at 19 and 12 in High-A the next season is impressive, and he’s already knocked six out in Double-A in 2025. Liranzo also has solid discipline to complement the pop, and his maintaining a 16%+ walk rate from A to AA-Ball displays it’s a legit tool. He also elevates reasonably well, keeping a ground ball rate around 40%.
He’s a hit first prospect, and Fangraphs acknowledges his raw defense skills. Despite this, he’s a large physical athlete with positive feedback on his work ethic, making Liranzo a candidate to be an average to slightly below average defender, good enough given his ++ power at catcher. If he were a non-catcher, our model would likely be less enamored with his below-average contact tool; his sticking behind the plate is a key component to his overall projectability. In 2025, we’ll be curious if he can lower his K-rate from a career high of 32% as the season continues. Double-A is a big jump up in pitching talent, and for a 21-year-old to be posting a 131 wRC+, regardless of how, is an indicator of Liranzo’s skill with the stick and the eyes.
Baseball America
Too hot…
George Lombard Jr. (22nd overall, was 36th to start the year)
Why they like him: Baseball America acknowledges his relative lack of real production last season, but they praise his skillset and makeup as one ripe for improvement. He’s a lunchpail guy with a body that can get better fast.
Why they’re “too hot”: Our model focuses on stats, and as a result, it’s understandable why we don’t rate Lombard Jr. as highly as others. BA’s concerns about contact are why our model is hesitant on his projection, and unlike other walk-heavy profiles, he also lacks the power to make opposition pitchers pay. He was RED hot to start 2025, dominating High-A to score a quick promotion to Double-A. His Double-A start has gone the opposite way, posting a meager 86 wRC+. BABIP is a big factor in both his hot start and current cold stretch; he posted an absurd .433 High-A BABIP and an unlucky .250 BABIP in his time at the higher level without meaningful changes in groundball or infield fly ball rate, nor K-rate. Ultimately, while our gut feel may place him somewhere from 100-200 in our rankings, he hasn’t put up numbers to match scouts’ glowing assessments of his abilities. We’re eager to follow his progress to see if he can develop into a well-balanced and reliable option at short, and if he can get his average up to the .250s-.260s, he’ll be a solid middle infielder at the next level.
Too Cold…
Luis Peña (31st overall, up from 78th overall after first 2025 update, unranked to start the year)
Why they’re “too cold”: While liking his contact profile, Baseball America was discouraged by his tendency to chase and his lack of top-end power. They do laud his high EV and explosive athleticism, however, and they ranked him as the Brewers’ preseason #8 prospect behind #1 Brewers and #16 overall prospect Jesus Made (who is now ranked #4 overall).
Peña in action
Why we like him: One of our preseason’s most flaming hot takes was our ranking of Peña above Made. We lauded Peña’s ++ hit tool, and his standout gap power and high EV teased homer potential. While both have performed well in 2025, Peña’s hot start has brought our take into the realm of reality. He’s been one of MiLB’s top performers despite missing time with injuries, hitting .333 with a .964 OPS, a near equal K/BB ratio, and 23 steals in 139 PA, and he’s our highest ranked player in A-Ball or lower. We honestly can’t say enough good things about Peña, and while he’s unlikely to ever be a ++ power guy, he’s got the foundation to be a top-end pure-hitter type. If Peña (and Made) continue to rake, we’d expect them to see some High-A time in 2025, and it wouldn’t shock us to see them dominate there too.
Just right!
Emmanuel Rodriguez (23rd Overall, started the year 22nd)
Why they’re just right: Rodriguez is an odd case; he rarely swings, clubs homers, and walks and Ks at a high rate. 59% of his 2025 PAs have ended without a ball in play! Remarkably, and unlike the vast majority of power over hit profiles, he’s a top-end OF, a skill that Fangraphs cites as driven by excellent feel, routes, and instincts rather than raw speed. He didn’t have a phenomenal start to the season, posting a .558 OPS in April, but with a 1.023 OPS in his last 17 games, he’s recaptured his productivity at the doorstep of the Show. He has struggled to avoid strikeouts in Triple-A, K’ing in 35% of his PA, a leap from a more manageable 29.7% in 2024. While he still walks at a rate (20%) to remain productive despite the strikeouts, we wonder if he has the bat-to-ball skills to counter aggressive big league pitchers who are wary of Rodriguez’s passive approach.
Our model loves his walk tool; it’s one of the best in the upper minors, and he’s still young. Even in his relatively down 2025, he still has above-average HR and XBH power. For us, the deciding factor is going to be the hit tool. If he can hit even .220-.230 at the big league level, his power, walks, and defense should keep him in the lineup. He’s a higher upside Spencer Jones, as Rodriguez’s walks boost his offensive profile despite big swing and miss.
MLB Pipeline
Too hot…
Blake Mitchell (42nd overall)
Why they like him: A top-10 draft pick who dominated A-Ball at age 19, Mitchell flashed a ton of upside in A-Ball, clubbing 18 HRs for a 135 wRC+. He’s a decent positional catcher, too, but needs refinement to tap into his plus athleticism. Pipeline is a big believer in the hit tool and power, giving him a 50 hit and 60 power rating.
Why they’re “too hot”: For us, while Mitchell’s hot 2024 is appealing, he has some concerns that scare our model. First, while he did hit for big power, he only posted a .238 average, with much of his .376 OBP coming off of walks. With walks being relatively easy to come by in the low minors, a good walk rate is less impressive if the hit tool is not also a plus trait. In addition, a 30.5% A-Ball K-rate is a scary high figure, and a 20+% infield fly ball percentage hints further at hit tool struggles. For reference, Thayron Liranzo (mentioned earlier, and a similar HR mashing C prospect) had a 26.8% K-rate and hit .272 in his 19-year-old season in A-Ball. That difference in K-rate and contact is enough for our model to rate Liranzo higher than most outlets, and Mitchell outside of our top 100.
We agree far more with Fangraphs’ 30 grade on Mitchell’s hit tool, and see him more as a boom-or-bust type bat than a solid hitter with pop. Mitchell has had an injury-marred start to 2025, but we’re intrigued to see if he can improve the hit tool going forward.
Too Cold…
Luke Keaschall (54th overall)
*Screenshot pre-promotion
Why they’re “too cold”: Pipeline lauds his maturity at the dish, calling him “one of the better pure hitters in the Minors.” They seem a bit turned off by his lack of top-end power, as well as his questionable defensive future, especially post-2024 Tommy John surgery.
Why we like him: We’ve liked Keaschall since our earliest models; he just does everything well! We say “nay” on Pipeline’s downplaying of his power. With 15 jacks and 22 XBH in 464 PA in 2024, he flashed the type of pop necessary to be a plus contributor at the dish with the clout to punish mistakes. He also posted elite plate discipline, posting 13%+ walk rates and sub-14% K-rates in both of his first two pro seasons. He’s one of those prospects who lacks an elite tool, but his combo of respectable power, fantastic contact, and strong discipline makes him an elite prospect. He was red hot to begin his MLB career before sustaining a forearm fracture; we’ll see if he can keep his momentum going in his mid-late season return!
Just right!
Josue De Paula (33rd Overall)
Why they’re just right: De Paula’s a toolshed prospect with the results to back it up! In 2024, as a 19-year-old, he averaged a 131 wRC+ in A and High-A ball, showcasing a decent hit tool and respectable power, along with elite discipline. A 21.7% walk rate and 16.5% K-rate in High-A is absurd! Pipeline cites him as an exit velo monster, going as far as to call him a “slightly smaller Yordan Alvarez,” but before 2025, his homer pop was relatively unrealized. This season, De Paula has made tremendous strides forward, smashing eight homers in 222 PA, just two jacks shy of his 2024 number (481 PA). He continues to walk more than punch out, and has lowered his groundball rate to 41.7% while upping his line drive rate to 25.2%.
To see a prospect like him begin to realize his scouted power at age 20 is rare, and he’s passed every test at the dish thus far in his pro career. De Paula is a mediocre corner outfielder, though, and his lack of looks at CF even in A-Level ball is enough to dock him some credit in our model. If he can leverage his athleticism to become an average to even below-average outfielder, the bat should be more than enough to make De Paula a major league talent.
We’re sure you disagree with some (or all) of our takes! Tell us in the comments who we are too hot, too cold, and just right on.