Jud Fabian - 6/20/23

Fabian was one of the more divisive draft prospects in recent memory, and this year he has rewarded his supporters.

Prospect Spotlight 🔦

Jud Fabian CF – Age: 22 – B/T: R/L, 6’1’’ 195 – Orioles (Double-A)

• Born: 9/27/2000 (Ocala, FL)

• Acquired: Draft: CB-B (Orioles)

Over the course of my short time on Twitter, I can’t think of a draft prospect who has been more hotly debated than Jud Fabian. Not many people would disagree that he has plus raw power, is a plus defender in center, is an above-average runner, and has solid plate discipline, and on the surface that seems like a top-10 pick. But Fabian had high whiff rates, especially in-zone whiff rates, which stirred plenty of debate during the 2021 and 2022 draft cycles. After turning down the Boston Red Sox, who drafted him 40th overall in 2021, he was taken 67th by the Baltimore Orioles in 2022. In light of his recent promotion to Double-A Bowie, I thought I would take a look to see what Fabian has been up to this season and how well does it mirror what he did as an amateur.

To give full context on Jud Fabian, it is important to go all the way back to his freshman year of college. Fabian enrolled early at the University of Florida, and was an immediate starter, where he hit .232/.353/.411 with seven homers in 207 plate appearances. He was doing so while being roughly 2.7 years younger than the average SEC hitter. Fabian then followed this up an impressive performance on the Cape, hitting .290/.350/.500 with 6 home runs. However, this is also where we started to see Fabian’s Achilles heel start to show. In his 139 plate appearances on the Cape, he posted a 30% whiff rate, along with a 21% in-zone whiff rate, both of which are fairly high. However, given that he just completed his first year of college baseball and he was young for his class, these numbers were not taken too seriously, though they were something to watch for in 2020. Due to the pandemic, he wasn’t really able to answer his whiff questions until 2021, where is where his whiff problems became the focal point of his draft profile.

In 2021, as a 20 year old he helped lead Florida to a 38-22 record, while hitting .249/.364/.560 with 20 homers and a 15% walk rate, albeit with a 29% strikeout rate. As you can see in the table above, his underlying swing metrics were concerning, as he had a whiff rate of 36% and 27% in-zone whiff rate, both of which were strikingly high. Still, he was showing power and above-average plate discipline, along with plus defense at a premium position, so his supporters thought even if he hit just .200, he would still be a valuable player due to his other skills. Again, he was young for the class as well, giving him another boost in the draft models.