Termarr Johnson - 8/1/23

The fourth pick in the 2022 draft has made an interesting profile shift

Prospect Spotlight 🔦

Termarr Johnson 2B – Age: 19 – B/T: L/R, 5’8’’ 175 – Pirates (Low-A)

• Born: 6/11/2004, Atlanta, GA

• Draft: 2022, Pittsburgh Pirates, Round: 1, Overall Pick: 4

The Pittsburgh Pirates have been drafting near the top as of late, and thus their farm system is flush with exciting young prospects. Along with the freebie they were gifted by the Mets (Endy Rodriguez), they have used their top picks to get Henry Davis, Termarr Johnson, and most recently, Paul Skenes, which is an impressive haul. Today, I’ll focus on 2022 1st round pick Termarr Johnson, who has had a roller coaster of a season but is on a hot streak as of late.

Heading into the draft, the discussion about Termarr almost always started with how advanced his hit tool was. It wasn’t uncommon to see draft analysts put a 70 on his hit tool and say that his feel for hitting was the best in the class. However, while he does have an immaculate looking swing, that doesn't necessarily mean he has a great feel for hitting. As you can see in the below table, during the showcase circuit, his whiff and chase rates compared to the other top prep bats ranked third out of four, which doesn’t scream “70 bat.” Showcase stats are noisy, but still you would like to see more before grading a hit tool this high.

Still, Termarr showed a plus hit tool, which combined with his above-average power and ability to stay up the middle, made him an undeniable top draft choice. There were debates heading into the draft about if he could play shortstop; most thought that he would fit best at second. While not a shortstop, he would still provide plus defense at second and be a defensive asset. When the Pirates drafted him fourth overall, I had no complaints, and was excited to see how the hit tool would hold up in pro ball.

After a solid showing in Low-A at the end of the 2022 summer, Termarr was assigned to Low-A Bradenton to start his first full season of pro ball in 2023. He got off to a rough start, hitting below .200 for parts of May with a huge spike in his strikeout rate. This fed into my concerns about his hit tool being worse than expected, but he’s settled in over the course of the season. Currently, he has a .419 OBP with a 21.6% BB%, and a 26.7% K%. The strikeout percentage is a little high, but we’ve seen steady improvement over the course of the year which is reassuring. Termarr’s batted-ball distribution is solid, posting a 1.27 GB/FB ratio and a 44.5 Pull%. From a stat line perspective, while there are some warts, he has shown improvement over the course of the season.

Now let’s take a look at the Statcast data that Johnson has generated this year in the FSL.