“Success rates on both sides of the ball in the ninth inning hover just above 40%, compared to around 60% in the first. We like calling these last-ditch, usually unsuccessful challenges “vanity challenges.” — Plus nobody is going to “waste” a challenge in the first inning — unless they are really sure. So we’d expect first inning challenges to be more successful than ninth inning — use it or lose it — challenges.
I'd agree in theory, but the data here is interesting. I can't post the graph here (but would be glad to share) but there's very little variance between innings 1-8 in terms of miss distance on failed challenges. The 9th inning has the greatest miss distances, but teams seem to be missing by a relatively similar amount in innings 1-8. I bet players are doing exactly what you describe, but their ability to pull it off is another story.
Good stuff.
“Success rates on both sides of the ball in the ninth inning hover just above 40%, compared to around 60% in the first. We like calling these last-ditch, usually unsuccessful challenges “vanity challenges.” — Plus nobody is going to “waste” a challenge in the first inning — unless they are really sure. So we’d expect first inning challenges to be more successful than ninth inning — use it or lose it — challenges.
I'd agree in theory, but the data here is interesting. I can't post the graph here (but would be glad to share) but there's very little variance between innings 1-8 in terms of miss distance on failed challenges. The 9th inning has the greatest miss distances, but teams seem to be missing by a relatively similar amount in innings 1-8. I bet players are doing exactly what you describe, but their ability to pull it off is another story.