Unusual Suspects: 8/14/23

Down on the Farm takes a look at five off-the-radar prospects.

If there’s one thing you should know about me, it’s that I’m a sucker for an underdog story. Now, I certainly don’t want to assume you share my feelings about underdogs—we’ve only just met—but I think rooting for underdogs is a fundamental part of human nature. 

Sure, some of it might be the schadenfreude of watching Goliath take a tumble, but I think it’s more about David emerging victorious against all odds. Each time an underdog adds a tally to the “Win” column we’re given one more glimmer of hope that we too, someday, might star in our own underdog story. This unabashed enthusiasm for longshots is the inspiration for “Unusual Suspects,” a new recurring segment here at Down on the Farm.

Each week, I’ll highlight five minor leaguers who have captured my attention, despite a lack of shine from the prospecting community. I am, by no means, claiming the players mentioned in this series are destined for the big leagues, or even the next iteration of a Top 100 list. What I am doing is highlighting players who, for one reason or another, are outperforming their prospect status in a way that I find compelling. 

All of these players have already climbed a proverbial mountain to get here, proving that they are among the best of the best in the world, but every one of them, by some measure or another, is still a “suspect.” Even the players whose names are already cemented atop the 2024 top prospect lists are still not a lock to have successful big league careers.

As Kevin Goldstein put it in his 2022 piece for FanGraphs, “Managing Prospect Expectations:” (emphasis added by me)

I think our Top 100 is really good, but I also buy the research that suggests that a meaningful percentage of these players just aren’t going provide any major league value. None. Zero. Zilch. Nada. Indeed, if we average the bust odds for all 114 ranked prospects and apply that average to the population, we can get a rough idea of how many of the those players we might expect to bust — in this case, about 36 players.

I agree with Kevin, the prospect coverage at FanGraphs (led by Eric Longenhagen and Tess Taruskin) is really good. And yet! They fully expect 30% of players on their Top 100 will provide zero value at the major league level.

So, with that in mind, here are the specific eligibility requirements for “Unusual Suspects.” Aside from my own judgement about what is and isn’t interesting, players are eligible for consideration if, at the time of writing, they:

• Are not on a 26-man roster

• Maintain their rookie eligibility (i.e. fewer than 130 MLB at-bats or 50 MLB innings pitched)

• Were not selected in the 2023 draft

• Did not appear in any of the four pre-season Top 100 prospect lists at Baseball America, FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus, or MLB Pipeline 

As for players who have sky-rocketed onto mid-season lists, I may dub them a “Usual Suspect” (as I’ve done with Jeferson Quero today), giving them an honorable mention of sorts while giving me a chance to talk about the players to whose parties I’m arriving a bit late, at least relative to other prospect hounds.

So, with that preamble out of the way, let’s take a look at some unusual suspects! Today, I’m focusing on five hitters (listed in alphabetical order). Next week’s column will feature five pitchers.

Osleivis Basabe, INF, Tampa Bay, Triple-A

Basabe seems destined for a meaningful utility role with the Rays in short order. (This post was written on August 10, and Basabe made his MLB debut for Tampa Bay yesterday, August 13.) In Triple-A this year, the 22-year-old is splitting time evenly across second base, third base, and shortstop while holding his own at the plate (.296/.349/.425.). Although you might not suspect it from his effortful swing, Basabe’s calling card offensively is his ability to put the bat on the ball (91% Z-contact¹ in 2022, 85% this year). There’s almost no power to his game now (just 12 homers in five pro seasons), though he does hit a fair number of doubles and triples, suggesting he might be able to develop a bit more power in the years to come. Ultimately, he is quite young for Triple-A and his defensive flexibility should give him plenty of chances to find his footing offensively. 

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Jaison Chourio, OF, Cleveland, Complex League

Last year, at just 17 years old, Chourio slashed .280/.446/.402 in the Dominican Summer League, walking nearly twice as often as he struck out. The switch-hitting outfielder is now showing out for Cleveland in the complex league. Although his strikeout rate has climbed from 12.6% last year to 19.4% this year, he’s still walking more than 20% of the time and hitting the ball to all fields. He’s a long way from The Show, and unlikely to shoot through the minors the way his brother Jackson has², but his feel for the zone, barrel control from both sides of the plate, and a 6-foot-2 160-pound frame to grow into make him someone worth following.

(Video source³)